by Zbigniew Jaworowsky, MD, Ph, D., D.Sc.
Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection in Warsaw, Poland.
also served as Chief of UNSCEAR,
Scientific Committee of the United Nations on the Effects of Atomic Radiation.
(English translation of Eduardo Ferreyra,
the article published in the journal Science & Technology Centruy 21st)
Influence Sun
Recent studies by several groups of oceanographers, meteorologists and astrophysicists show excellent correlation between surface temperatures of oceans and solar activity during the last 50 years the tropical and subtropical parts of three oceans have been cooling and heating 0.1 ° C, perfect fit with the solar cycle of eleven years. This is amazing, because differences in solar brightness reached only 0.1%, which is not sufficient to cause the observed temperature changes. It appears that the sun triggers a signal of climate effect by some factor amplifier. During the Little Ice Age about 300 years ago, solar radiation was 0.25% lower than the current [48]. Since 1750, the air temperature over Europe has been constantly changing the pace of solar cycles, but not at the rate of change of greenhouse gases. When the Sun was more active, the Earth's troposphere was warmer (Figure 7). [47, 49, 51]
The mechanism that amplifies the solar signal is probably a phenomenon like El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO), an anomaly of the equatorial waters of the eastern Pacific, El Nino warming, La Nina cooling . The ENSO anomalies occur as irregular cycles of 2-7 years, associated with large-scale changes in atmospheric pressure in the tropics between East and West Pacific. ENSO influences the climate of the planet. [52]. Satellite measurements during the observation period of 20 years, El Niño in 1998 caused the strongest thermal anomalies in the Earth's atmosphere. In April and May 1998, the deviation of the average global temperature from 1982 to 1991 amounted to +0.7 ° C.
During the past 20 years, El Niño occurred several times, but in 1997-98, was developed without simultaneous volcanic eruptions. On two previous occasions, the child was associated with large volcanic eruptions injected huge amounts of stratospheric dust: El Chichon in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo in 1991 These eruptions caused a global cooling of the atmosphere, which masked the effects of thermal Child. (See Figure 6 above).
Figure 7
TEMPERATURE OF THE SOLAR CYCLE troposphere and
Since 1750, the air temperature over Europe has been constantly changing the pace of solar cycles, but not at the rate of change of greenhouse gases. When the Sun was more active, the Earth's troposphere was warmer
Source: Notes 47, 49 and 51.
appears that El Niño is probably the strongest of the natural variability of the global climate system [53]. Since 1958 there have been positive and negative anomalies in global temperature associated with the Child [54] (and some dating back to 1610) [52]. Numerous observations suggest that the ENSO phenomenon depends on solar activity: Large solar flares cause dramatic increases in the solar wind, and decrease the intensity of cosmic rays reaching the Earth's atmosphere. As Cosmic rays provide condensation centers for clouds, large solar flares allow the formation of the Child, through a decrease of 2 to 3% of cloud cover in the short term. [52, 55, 56]
Computer models are only opinions
Computer models of climate are nothing but formalized opinion of its creators, on the global climate system operation [57]. If these models were able to project right-mind climate change, should pass the test to accurately reconstruct past climates, or at least reconstruct the current climate.
Normally, the projections of the human impact on climate using one of the many versions of GCMs (General Circulation Model) test various versions has shown that models are unable to correctly reconstruct the current climate even . All models had a 100% error for predictions of precipitation, and an error of 2 ° C for estimates of global temperature. For the Arctic, the error reached 10 ° C and Antarctica, the error was 20 ° C. [58] In one test, when fed 14 different models with the same climatic parameters, you got 14 different responses ranging from heating to cooling the overall temperature of the atmosphere [59].
A similar test was done on another 17 MCG produced similar results [60]. This explains why the predictions of temperature change of the IPCC, based on GLS models are in total disagreement with the actual temperatures measured by satellites (Figure 8).
Figure 8
GAPS BETWEEN TEMPERATURE TRENDS in the lower troposphere and the predictions of IPCC
The trend of annual changes of temperature in the lower troposphere, as has been measured satellite between latitudes 83 ° N and 83 ° S, diverge from the trend line for prone-ticada by IPCC computer models. Down line corresponds to the temperatures actually observed, while the sharp upward trend is the "prophecy" of the IPCC
Source: AR Robinson, SA Baliunas, W. Soon, and ZW Robinson, 1988 (Note 47).
Computer models project the greatest warming in the Northern Hemisphere to the Arctic, in 8 ° C to 10 ° C [15]. These projections have not been confirmed by measurements in situ. In Spitsbergen, where Norway has station measurements since 1912, the temperature does not show a positive trend [61]. It was also noted an absence of warming in five other Arctic regions [62], in Scandinavia, in Denmark and Greenland [63, 64].
A long series of measurements from 10 meteorological stations that form an arc around the Arctic, show that there was no heating, but cooling of the region [65]. The analysis of data from these regions covering an area of \u200b\u200bArctic Canada, Greenland, Iceland and Eurasia, shows that occurred around 1920 large warming in the Arctic. Between 1912 and 1920, increased the temperature in West Spitzbergen and Greenland between 3.5 ° C and 5 ° C. After 1950, the Resolute and Alert Canadian stations observed a decreasing trend. During this period, the temperature in West Greenland decreased by 1.5 ° C. We also observed a declining trend in the Russian Arctic, Franz Josef Land recorded in the maximum decrease in temperature, short-term, 4 ° C to 5 ° C. Nine
Danish weather stations in Greenland observed similar changes in the long term, with cooling in these regions between 1940 and 1985 [65, 66]. During the decade of 1955-1964, in a sector Arctic between Greenland, Norway, Spitzbergen and Novaya Zemlya, the temperature of sea surface water decreased by 0.1 ° C to 0.6 ° C in winter and 0.1 ° C to 0.25 ° C in summer. Between 1945 and 1975, also saw a decrease in surface water temperature of 1 ° C around the Faroe Islands, and the average temperature of the Atlantic north of 35 ° N decreased by 0.5 ° C between 1940 and 1987 [64 ]. A review of the temperatures of the Greenland ice sheet shows a decrease in air temperature over the past 30 years, and 15% decrease in rainfall. Both effects are completely opposite what the computer models projected. [67]
Further south, measurements indicate a systematic dendrological summer cooling of 3, ° C in the region north of Quebec, between 1800 and 1950. [68] In the southern part of the planet, the Antarctic Peninsula, the climate has gradually cooled to 2 ° C since 1850. [69] Compared with the 9 th century, the Ronne Shelf temperature decreased 0.7 ° C, and by 4 ° C in the 80's. [70] On a global scale, the temperature measurements show a systematic failure to gain optimal temperature after the 40's, instead, there is a trend enfriamiento durante las siguientes tres décadas. [57, 71] Desde los años 40, el mayor enfriamiento del clima se observó en las altas latitudes del norte [72], es decir, exactamente donde las hipótesis del calentamiento global proyecta el mayor aumento de temperatura.
Los Glaciares Crecientes
Las mediciones altimétricas por radar satelital sugieren que, entre 1978 y 1985, estaban creciendo a un ritmo que se correspondía con la disminución del nivel de los océanos, de 0,20 a 0,45 mm por año, de manera principal, por la acumulación de hielo en Groenlandia [73, 74] . Durante estos ocho años, the thickness of the Greenland helo coverage increased about 1.5 meters, which corresponds to 23 cm per year. The accuracy of these measurements was questioned on the basis of being "military secrets" [75]. However, the original results of Zwally et al., Were confirmed by later measurements made during the Geosat Exact Repeat Mission [76] and laser measurement result. [77]
measurements carried out in Greenland storey by the Expedition Glaciologique Internationale au Groenland (EGIG), and other groups in southern Greenland, show an average increase ice from 3 to 9 cm per year [74]. From 1968, face six of nine small glaciers studied in the West Greenland are beginning to move [66]. EGIG measurements showed that between 1959 and 1968, the surface layer of the central Greenland ice had increased 1 meter height. Around 1950, most of the ice edge south and west of Greenland was retiring and decreasing thickness. But around 1985, many parts of the retreating ice had begun to move again. In early 1990, the area of \u200b\u200bprogression had spread from the highlands to the lowlands [78]. Recent studies suggest that "There is no convincing evidence an increase in negative balance conditions can, a priori, be expected from a human-induced warming. "[79]
Of the 18 glaciers studied in the Arctic, 15 of them (77%) are now positive coefficient on mass balance / pending. Some of the glaciers show a trend towards less negative mass balance, and many others show a strong positive trend. Much of Scandinavian glaciers reached their historic peak in the 17 th century, during the Little Ice Age. After an intense melting in the early 20, 17 Scandinavian glaciers dramatically reduced its retreat and entered a process of increasing its mass. [80, 81]. Similar changes were later found in Scandinavia and Spitzbergen. [82]
In Antarctica, ice is growing so rapidly that by 2050 there will be a decline in the oceans of 30 cm. [83] The measurement indicates that ice buildup in Antarctica much of the increase in ice up to 5 to 25% of global precipitation, and lower sea levels of 1.0 to 1.2 mm per year. [84] Such behavior of the cryosphere will not support any claim that the climate is warming, or the catastrophic vision of rising sea levels caused by man can be fulfilled.
The Greenhouse
Only about half the solar energy reaching Earth is absorbed by the atmosphere. The rest is scattered back to space and to some extent absorbed by the atmosphere or reflected by the ground. The Earth itself radiates infrared wavelengths much longer than solar radiation. The infrared radiation from the Earth, unlike solar radiation is strongly absorbed by the atmosphere. The absorption is caused, the main way for the steam water and clouds, but also some low concentration gases in the atmosphere. Only a very small part of the emitted radiation reaches the surface to escape into outer space In this way, the atmosphere is warm and radiant energy back to the surface of the Earth, where it is absorbed again and again re-radiated. Thus, a substantial heat exchange occurs between the ground and lower atmosphere. This process, known as the greenhouse effect, is responsible for the relatively high average temperature of the planet.
Without the greenhouse effect, the average temperature near the surface would -18 ° C, rather than +15 ° C, as it is now. The difference of 33 ° C is the result of absorption of infrared radiation by atmospheric greenhouse gases. The most important greenhouse gas is water vapor, responsible for 96 to 99% of the greenhouse effect. Any reader of the IPCC 1990 report (the Bible of the adherents of the global warming induced by humans) may believe, incorrectly, that produces 25% CO2 greenhouse effect.
What is striking in this IPCC report is that the water has not been mentioned in any of the eight tables comparing the greenhouse effect of different components of the atmosphere! If the corresponding values \u200b\u200bof water had been included in these tables, it would have clearly seen the lack of importance in the thermal balance of the atmosphere, the CO2 produced by man. If CO2 were the only greenhouse gas from the atmosphere, contributing to 22% of current greenhouse. However, the effect of CO2 emissions is much lower, because of overlapping or overlapping with strong absorption lines from 12 to 18? M in the spectral region.
detailed analysis of the summer atmosphere in middle latitudes indicate that the overall effect of 342 watts/m2 gases, water vapor (lines continuous and discrete absorption) contributes with 330 watts/m2-that is, 96.5%, while CO2 contributes 12W/m2, or 3%. [85, 86] Other studies that take into account the vapor water, liquid water and heat transport by convection, estimated the contribution of CO2 as 1 to 5% of the total greenhouse effect. [87, 89] The other greenhouse gases are of marginal importance.
TABLE 1
CARBON POOLS AND CO2 FLUX IN THE ATMOSPHERE
| Current carbon reservoirs Gt | |
| Sediment | 60,000,000 |
| marine dissolved organic | |
| 38,000 | |
| fossil fuels (exploitable ) | 7,200 |
| Atmosphere | 727 |
| 1,300 | soil|
| 834 | |
| marine biomass | 42 |
| natural flows into the atmosphere annually | Gigatons |
| Oceans 106 | |
| 63 | |
| Total 169 |
| human flows into the atmosphere annually | Gigatons |
| Comb. Fossils and agricultural use | 6 |
the total flow of CO2 into the atmosphere of 169 Gt (Gt) of carbon annually, industrial and agricultural activity of mankind adds 6 Gt for years. This is similar to amplitude of the annual fluctuation of the total mass of atmospheric CO2 (5.4 megatons of carbon per year). The table shows the existing carbon pools on the surface of the Earth and the annual flows of CO2 (expressed as carbon equivalent in gigatons) of 1015 tons into the atmosphere.
Source: Adapted from Z. Jaworowski, and V. Segelstad TV Hisdal, 1992. (See Note 27)
We thank the existence of the oceans, which emit water vapor, not CO2, the Earth's temperature is well above 0 ° C on the surface, which is stable in a range of only a few degrees, and has allowed the existence of life. Total flow of CO2 into the atmosphere of 169 Gt (Gt) of carbon annually, industrial and agricultural activity of mankind adds 6 Gt per year (see Table 1). This is similar to the amplitude of the annual fluctuation of the total mass of atmospheric CO2 (5.4 megatons of carbon per year).
isotopic estimates of the mass balance of carbon-12 and carbon-13 in the atmosphere show that in 1988 the mass of CO2 from burning fossil fuels which had accumulated in the atmosphere between 1860 and 1988 was about 30 Gt of carbon, ie about 5% of the total mass of atmospheric CO2. [31, 90, 91] Similar results were found with estimates of the mass balance of CO2 non-isotopic [92]. Consequently, the human aggregate to total greenhouse is between 0.05 and 0.25%.
But even this tiny addition is doubtful. According to recent studies, all the infrared radiation could escape Earth's atmosphere (outside the "spectroscopic window" in the range 7.5 to 14 mm) is almost completely absorbed. Any increase in the concentration of CO2 in the air above the current level can not contribute significantly to greater retention of heat in the lower troposphere. [89 , 93]
known consequences of global warming hysteria
The hypothesis of global warming that would be caused by man is far from being confirmed by observations, many of which suggest that it is false. Environmentalists dreamers trying to seem axiomatic that the imaginary dangers of this warming must be remedied without waiting for further testing. In fact, they claim that scientific uncertainty should become the basis for a global regulation, which will put intolerable burdens on the world's population, especially in underdeveloped countries.
FB Cross, professor of business regulations at the University of Texas, has warned that "the precautionary principle is deeply perverse in its implications for the environment and human welfare." (94) To fulfill their dreams, environmentalists are willing to pay any cost humanity, impoverish entire nations and thus endanger the environment, destroy the industry created the work and sweat of their ancestors, and strangle our civilization. It's amazing the gullibility of a large part of society that, once exposed to concentrated media manipulation, has accepted a huge facility the mythology of global warming. One can understand the psychological and social reasons for this acceptance. However, the actions of the Organization of the United Nations and many governments, leading to the Earth community with a disaster eco-nomic and civilization, on behalf of a wandering ghost, do not appear to be responsible. Is it too much to ask politicians to act reasonably, rather than by short-term selfish interests?
Zbigniew Jaworowski, MD, Ph.D., and D.Sc., a professor at the Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection in Warsaw. Multidisciplinary scientific, medical, doctor in physics and Doctor of Science, has studied ice cores from glaciers around the world, analyzing traces of heavy metals and radionuclides. It is well known as an expert on radiation effects, and has served as chairman of the Scientific Committee United Nations Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR). Among his previous articles in the 21st Century Science & Technology is "Ice Info Show No Signs of Increased Carbon Dioxide", Spring, 1997, p. 42.
This article has the special permission of the magazine and the author for publication in Estrucplan.com
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