FAEC NOTE: In official publication of the Royal Society of Sciences in Britain, Proceedings of the Royal Society A, was released less than a week ago a study entitled "Recent oppositely directed trends in solar forcing Climate and Temperature Mean Surface Air" by author Mike Lockwood and Claus Frölich, the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory and the Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium, Davos, Switzerland, respectively, with a conclusion that seeks to "put the final nail in the coffin of the discussion about the solar influence on climate ".
Although much optimism and unbridled triumphalism has spread in the community of supporters of catastrophic global warming, this study is running the same fate as the unfortunate hockey stick of Michael Mann et al, 1998, also published as " last nail in the coffin. "From a cursory analysis of the study, it appears that the authors confuse some aspects of solar activity, such as "irradiance" and "Heat" as if they were the only elements produced by the sun His conclusions are curious because with a brief observation of solar activity over the past 20 years, and a reprehensible way handling statistics (garbage in, garbage out), the pre-Tende discard the very strong correlation observed from 1620 to date, including climate variations and solar activity
say the authors:
" There is considerable evidence for solar influence on pre-industrial climate of the Earth and the Sun may well have been a factor in changing post-industrial climate in the first half of last century. Here we show that during the past 20 years, all the trends in the Sun, which may have had influence on the Earth's climate have been in the opposite direction to that required to explain the observed increase in global average temperatures. "
Consequently, the only reason left to explain the temperature rise is, when no! carbon dioxide, but emitted by human activities. The sad thing about this study is that it forgets that besides failing to take into account a number of factors essential for a proper analy-sis, as the duration of solar cycles, have not fallen into account the authors that the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere does not explain (rather completely contradicts) the drop in temperatures occurred throughout the 20 th century, and especially the sharp drop in temperature has been experiencing the Southern Hemisphere since about 2000.
This drop in temperature of the planet's south has become very evident throughout the last year and became more pronounced during the summer, fall and culminated in the very severe cold wave polar tilts from early May and caused the historic snowfall of Buenos Aires-repeated fact that after 89 years when the June 22, 1918 snowfall huge covered the capi-tal of Argentina.
To understand that there are other fundamental factors not covered by the authors of the "final nail" - published a study by Dr. David Archibald, Australian climatologist, about their weather forecasts through 2030, based on studies of over solar cycle.
Eduardo Ferreyra President of FAEC
Climate Forecast Up in 2030 [1]
David Archibald Summa
Develpment Ltd., Perth, Australia
Our forecast for average global temperatures in 2030 have been updated by the progression of Solar Cycle 23 and the contribution it will make the anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere. The long growing Solar Cycle 23 supports the view that Solar Cycle 24 will be weak, and consequently an increase in the certainty that there will be an overall decrease in the average temperature in the range of 1 to 2 degrees C for the forecast period. The projected 40 ppm increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2030 is estimated to contribute a 0.04 ° C in global mean temperature. The human contribution climate change within the time specified will be insignificant relative to natural cyclic variation.
INTRODUCTION Numerous published correlations on past solar activity and climate record. These studies include correlations of the record of ice ages and isotope 10Be oped detailed work on the temperature record of the 20th century by Friis-Christensen and Lassen (1991) [2]. These studies show that the climate of the Earth moves in tight relation with solar activity. A number of solar physicists are now also predicting future solar activity, with some of these predictions extending beyond 2100.
Archibald (2006) used the calibration provided by the work done on the historical record to make a prediction of global climate response to solar cycles 24 and 25. The conclusion of this study was that low amplitudes projected for these two solar cycles, made by a number of solar physicists of high repute, will result in a global decline in atmospheric temperature in the range of 2 º C. Empratura This response is similar to that occurred during solar minimum Dalton, from 1796 to 1820, a period well documented how low amplitudes des cycles 5 and 6 caused a low global temperature.
Solar Cycle Progression
23
The average solar cycle is 10.7 years. Solar Cycle 23 began in May 1996, rising to a peak of 120.9 marks in April 2000. For solar cycle 23 had an average duration of 10.7 years, Solar Cycle 24 should have started in January 2007. The first spots usually appear on the Sun more than 20 degrees latitude on the surface of the Sun According to the last two solar cycles, the first sunspots appear 12 to 20 months before the start of the new cycle. Apart from a few magnetic dipoles without Sun spots have not been registered to date, no reverse polarity sunspot with a latitude of more than 20 degrees above the solar Ecuador. This means that the solar cycle is still at least a year away, or else the "rule of observations" is wrong.
large solar cycles usually arrive early and short solar cycles do later. If the "observation rule" relationship between the first patch of sunlight of the new cycle and its timing are firm, then the Solar Cycle 23 will be at least 12 years long. It also follows from this that the longer the delay until the month of solar minimum, the weaker the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24. Friis-Chrsitensen
and Lassen (1991) found that during the period between 1850 and 1990 solar cycle length correlates better with temperature than with the amplitude of the cycle. This was confirmed by the data of temperatures in Armagh, Ireland, according to Butler and Johnston (1996) [3], that showed a strong correlation of 0.5 º C in average annual temperatuira per year of solar cycle length.
| Figure 1: Transition from Cycle 22 to Cycle 23 |
Solar minimum is the lowest point in the overlap between the old cycle sunspots and sunspot high latitude reverse polarity new cycle. This is illustrated in Figure 1 showing the transition of Solar Cycle 22 to Solar Cycle 23.
Size of Solar Cycle 24
Figure 2 illustrates the range of predictions of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 among solar physicists. There are currently 24 published predictions, of which 7 have been selected for this figure. The highest prediction is provided by Dikpati (2006) [4] and the lowest by Clilverd (2006) [5] . Schatten (2004) [6] has the longest record in predicting the amplitude of solar cycles, using the force of the Sun's polar magnetic fields in a solar dynamo model.
The importance of the meaning of this breadth of predictive values \u200b\u200bis equivalent to a range of 2.0 º C in average global temperatures. This range is significant in terms of the observed rise of 0.6 º C global mean temperature during the 20 th century. Dikpati's forecast of 175 spots is similar to the peak of Solar Cycle 19 of 190 spots in 1957. The late 50's praise was a period of high temperatures before 20 years of cooling in the mid 70's, it was caused by weak solar cycle 20. The 42-Clilverd forecast, if realized, would be the lowest in the last 300 years.
| Figure 2: Predictions of the amplitude of solar cycle 24 |
Effects of Increased Atmospheric CO2 on the temperature
The annual growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide over the past 30 years is 1.7 parts per million (ppm). The current level of 376 ppm is projected to increase Hsat 420 ppm by 2030. Using her existing MODTRANS program at the University of Chicago, in Figure 4 shows the relationship between carbon dioxide content and the increase in global average temperature.
| Figure 4: Atmospheric Temperature increase per 20 ppm of carbon dioxide increases. |
The projected 40 ppm increase reduces emission from the stratosphere to space from 279.6 to 279.2 watt/m2 watt/m2. Using the temperature response demonstrated by Sherwood Idso (1998) [7] of 0.1 º C by watt/m2, this difference of 0.4 watts / m 2 equivalent to an increase in temperature of the atmosphere of 0, 04 º C. The effect of carbon dioxide on temperature is logarithmic and thus climate sensitivity decreases with increasing concentration of CO2. The first 20 ppm of carbon dioxide have a greater effect on temperature than the next 400 ppm. Increasing the CO2 content of a further 200 ppm to the 620 ppm, projected for the year 2150 will result in a further increase of 0.16 ° C global average temperature.
The projected increase to 620 ppm is likely to be achieved if China's economic expansion continues for the next 10 years at the same rate it did during the past 10 years. Figure 5 shows the carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere of the United States, Australia, and China, with historical data to 2005 and projected to 2020. Chinese emissions, which were estimated to outstrip the U.S. in 2009 was in fact in the month of April 2007. CO2 emissions per capita of the three countries will be equal to 2020.
| Figure 5: CO2 Emissions to Air America, China and Australia for the period 1906 to 2020 Source: Analysis Center Carbon Dioxide Information, Department of Energy, United States. |
- References Archibald, D. 2006, Solar Cycles 24 and 25 and Predicted Climate Response Energy and Environment, 17, 29-38.
- Friis-Christensen, E. and K. Lassen 1991, Length of the solar cycle: an indicator of solar activity closely associated with climate, Science, 254, 698-700.
- Butler, C. J. and D.J.Johnston., 1996, A provisional long mean air temperature series for Armagh Observatory. J. Atmos. Terrestrial Phys., 58, 1657-1672.
- Dikpati, M., G. de Toma and P.A.Gilman 2006, Predicting the strength of solar cycle 24 using a flux-transport dynamo-based tool Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L05102
- Clilverd, M., E.Clarke, T.Ulrich, H.Rishbeth and M.J.Jarvis 2006, Predicting Solar Cycle 24 and beyond, Space Weather, 4, S09005
- Schatten, K.H. and W.K.Tobiska 2003, Solar Activity Heading for a Maunder Minimum?, Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, 35 (3), 6.03
- Idso, S. 1998, CO2-induced global warming: a skeptic's view of climate change Potential Climate Research, 10, 69-82.
Develpment Ltd., Perth, Australia
Posted by: Eduardo Ferreyra President
FAEC
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